MARKET OUTLOOK JUNE 2013

                          Market Outlook - June 2013 

The equity markets ended flat in the month of May with Nifty posting 0.94% returns. Gold fall has taken a pause in the month and ended flat during the month while Crude Oil fell by 0.88% to $93.60/barrel. WPI inflation eased to 4.89% in April compared to 5.96% in the previous month.Liquidity from global markets continued during the month but domestic institutions remained net sellers for the month. Indian Rupee has seen major fall during the month and US $ appreciated 5% against rupee to close at the level of 56.57 Rs/$.

All eyes are on RBI June 17 policy review meet where most of the analysts are expecting rate cut in the range of 25 Bps to 50 Bps because inflation has touched low of 4.89% and Q4 GDP growth number has come at 4.8%. Though macro numbers are suggesting aggressive rate cut but we believe that RBI is likely to cut rates in staggered manner and this policy meet may not take aggressive rate cut and it could be 25 Bps only. We see 10 Year G Sec yields settling in the rage of 6.5% to 6.75% over next 12 months but in next couple of months yields might inch up higher because of new paper supply. We recommend Dynamic Bond Fund with 12-18 months time horizon. Equity market will remain range bound for some more time but outlook for FY 14 and FY 15 remains positive. We hold our advice to investors to keep buying equity mutual funds through SIP/ STP route.

We have been advising profit booking and rebalancing of gold portfolio since

November in our product update. It has corrected a lot since then. Though lump sum purchase in gold should be avoided at present but ongoing SIPs in gold funds should be continued for long term goals like Child Marriage.