Monday, August 13, 2012
Monday, August 6, 2012
MARKET OUTLOOK - AUGUST 2012
The equity markets declined marginally in the month of July posting negative returns of 1%. Gold
rose marginally during the month while Crude Oil surged by 8.66% to $89.92/barrel. Inflation
decreased to 7.25% in June compared to 7.55% in the previous month. US market is trading at 52
weeks high and other global markets have also picked up in the month. On domestic front, we
have a bad monsoon and this may aggravate problems especially on inflation front. RBI has left
key policy rates unchanged and revised FY13 GDP growth to 6.5% from 7.3%. The RBI also
maintained that the main focus of the policy would be to control inflation.
We believe that market is likely to face pressure in coming months if Govt. officially declares
draught and inflation goes up. Markets have been waiting for some kind of positive
announcement on economic front by govt. of India but so far no announcement has come.
Thought markets remain weak in short term but Long Term investors should use intermittent
corrections to accumulate equities for coming years. We hold our advice to investors to keep
buying equity mutual funds through SIP/ STP route to generate wealth over the long term. On
debt side we recommend Dynamic Bonds Funds and Medium Term Income Funds. We advise
adding income funds in your portfolio in gradual manner as we may enter soft interest regime in
second half of the year, but investors should avoid aggressive income funds at this point to time
which take long duration calls. We maintain our view to hold 5-10% allocation to gold in the
overall portfolio.
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